It’s Time to Say ‘Play Ball!’ on the 2021 American Association Season
American Association Daily provides insights, features, and recaps of the action from around the American Association of Professional Baseball League, as well as player and coaching profiles and transactions. In today’s edition, Robert Pannier answers 21 questions that are sure to be on the minds of American Association fans as the 2021 American Association season is just about to get underway.
21 Questions That Will Be Answered During the 2021 American Association Season
It does not seem like very long ago that the Milwaukee Milkmen were hoisting the American Association championship trophy. That may be true for five teams who played during the 2020 campaign, but there are four others for whom it must seem like an eternity since they took to the diamond. For the Kansas City Monarchs, Cleburne Railroaders, Lincoln Saltdogs, and Gary Southshore RailCats, they have not played a regular season game since Labor Day of 2019.
How they respond is just one of the questions that will be answered during the 2021 American Association season, which kicks off today. So, now that it is time to say, “Play Ball!” here are 21 questions that are sure to be answered this season.
21. How Will Fans Embrace Independent Baseball in Kane County?
For 30 years, the Kane County Cougars were the minor-league affiliate of some Major League organization. Most recently that of the Arizona Diamondbacks. They were one of the 42 teams cut during the minor league contraction, but quickly joined the American Association. This is great for a community that loves baseball, but it will be interesting to see how Kane County fans embrace independent ball. After all, they have been used to watching high draft picks come through their park, but now will be watching players who will not be moving up in a “system.”
How will fans embrace a team that does not have the future stars of a Major League organization? The truth is they will probably love it. No concerns for pitch counts or the team forced to play a .154 hitter because he is a big-time prospect. Instead, they get to watch baseball the way it was intended, with their team playing to win. Plus, they have one of the best managers in former St. Paul Saints skipper George Tsamis. This should be a great season in Kane County.
20. Do the Houston Apollos Go Over or Under 18?
In 2017, the Salina Stockade joined the American Association for a season after the Laredo Lemurs were forced to withdraw. This happened just a few weeks before the season got underway, and the Stockade struggled greatly, winning just 18 games.
This year, with the Texas AirHogs folding and the St. Paul Saints becoming the AAA affiliate of the Minnesota Twins, the league found themselves in need of a 12th team, and the Houston Apollos gracefully accepted the offer to join the American Association for a year. They have had a few months to build their team under manager David Peterson, and the question will be whether this team can win more than 18 games. While Houston will be much better than that Salina squad, the sad reality is that they will likely not win more than 15.
It is not that this team lacks talent. Instead, it is that the South Division is going to be an absolute meat grinder. The poor Apollos are going to see some of the best talent on any roster in any independent league night after night. Houston we have a problem.
19. The Goldeyes Fixin’ to Play in Jackson – Maybe
The Winnipeg Goldeyes were rolling through the first half of the 2020 American Association season, but wore down under a very difficult schedule. While the other five teams were able to play at least some portion of the schedule at their own home stadium, Winnipeg was forced to play the entire year on the road. That eventually led to them wearing down, falling to fourth.
It looked like it was going to be another tough season for the Goldeyes as the Canadian border closure had them looking like a 100 -road team this season, but Jackson, Tennessee was gracious enough to become the home stadium for Winnipeg this year. They lost the Generals as part of the contraction, and are welcoming the Goldeyes as the “home team” for the city this season.
At least, that is the way it looks. Unfortunately, the mayor of the city (whose name we will not mention because of his sheer stupidity) is battling in arbitration to stop Winnipeg from playing there. The Goldeyes will at least begin the 2021 season in Jackson. Will they stay there the whole year? If it is like any other legal proceeding in this country, you can be sure that this season is long over before that legal dispute will be finalized.
18. Does Sioux City’s Aging Stars Have Anything Left in the Tank?
For much of the last six seasons, three players have distinguished themselves as absolute stars in the league. All three reside in Sioux City, where Nate Samson, José Sermo, and Michael Lang have been absolute superstars. Lang and Samson hold almost every offensive record for the Explorers and Samson and Sermo are both former league MVPs. The credentials for this trio are without rival.
However, with all three over or approaching 30, one has to wonder what is left in the tank for the trio. Sermo signed with Milwaukee last season and hit just .197 in 39 games. Samson, a notorious slow starter, appeared in 48 games for St. Paul where he hit .257, at least 70 percentage points below what American Association fans have become accustomed to seeing. Lang did not play last season at all, and one must wonder how long it will take for him to regain his swing.
The three veterans have proven that they are as good as it gets. Can the trio come together to produce one more great season? If opposing pitchers are thinking no, they are about to get a rude awakening.
17. Is RailCats Baseball Dead?
If you look at the RailCats roster you will notice that the team is likely going to start the season with at least 20 rookies out of their 24 man roster. That is a remarkable number to say the least. It is also a number that Gary Southshore fans have become accustomed to. Manager Greg Tagert is not afraid to use young, college graduates to play his style of baseball, and that has traditionally led to a small ball type of game.
That style has been perfect for US Steel Yard, home of the RailCats, but the park underwent a renovation during the off-season. The fences have been moved in, and it is more likely that home runs will be hit in the park this year. The question is if this will change the style of play for the team? It will surely provide better offensive numbers for opponents, who must have thought they were trying to hit home runs in Yosemite Park. Now they have a much better chance to go deep, as will the RailCats, but will they? Don’t count on it. Opponents should still expect to be RailCatted.
16. Can Brett Jodie Win in Lincoln?
The Saltdogs were one of those four teams who did not play in 2020. Jim Frisbee had been named the manager after the 2019 season, and there was much anticipation as to how he would change the team for the better. However, he never had the opportunity to manage a game for the club. With about a month until the 2021 season got underway, Frisbee joined the Detroit Tigers as a bench coach, the club was out looking for a new manager just a few short weeks before spring training got underway.
Fortunately, Brett Jodie was available after Somerset joined the minor leagues. Jodie has a proven record for success and the club has to be thrilled that he was available and willing to take the job. However, this is truly not his team. Most of this club was built by Frisbee, so it will be interesting to see how well these players respond to the new manager and if he is forced to make some dramatic changes to get the club he wants. Plus, it does not help that he is in the most difficult division in the American Association. No doubt Jodie will do a great job, but this team will likely not win more than 42 games in 2021.
15. Is Kansas City the New St. Paul?
For nearly 30 years, it seemed that players loved playing in St. Paul. This became even more so after CHS Field was finished. The ballpark was truly spectacular, and enticing players to join the Saints was not a difficult task.
Now St. Paul is a AAA team. So, who replaces the club as the “place to play?” That will likely be Kansas City. This is a great city with lots to do and a spectacular ballpark. They have a winning manager in Joe Calfapietra and, with the rebranding of the team as the Monarchs, there is a lot of buzz around the club. This is likely the go to destination for players and will likely be so for quite some time.
14. Will More Players Getting ‘Transferred’ to Minor League Teams?
If you have been watching the American Association transactions on a daily basis, you have likely noticed that player after player has been transferred from the league to a Major League organization. Already some of the best talent is gone, and that trend is likely to continue.
With so many players opting to retire after 2020 was washed out and with an even bigger number still trying to round themselves into shape after not playing last year, affiliate clubs are looking at the American Association as the place to find an extra player or two. That trend is going to continue for at least a month, at least until the amateur draft occurs. By then, maybe it will slow down but, if a team has a player who gets off to a hot start, count on him being transferred.
13. What Does Josh Robertson Have in the Tank?
One of the things that makes American Association baseball so much fun is the brilliant minds that are part of the league. Managers and GMs are great at building rosters, and you are going to be hard-pressed to find a better group in any other league.
Railroaders GM Josh Robertson has been one of the very best for about 14 seasons now. He helped to build some extremely impressive clubs in Wichita, and has turned Cleburne into a very competitive team. However, the Railroaders have come up short in both 2018 and 2019 and, after sitting out all of 2020, one has to wonder if the “Mad Scientist” has that edge needed to build a championship club. No doubt Josh will be hungry, but will that be enough to turn this club into a champion? I would not rule it out.
12. Was 2020 a Fluke in Sioux Falls
There is clearly a lot of buzz in Kansas City this season, but that is true in Sioux Falls as well. They also have a new ownership group, and that group is all in on turning the Canaries into a championship club. With a new scoreboard and other renovations to the stadium, plus a commitment the team payroll, the Canaries should be very competitive in 2021, but is that enough for this team to make the playoffs in the very difficult South Division.
They reached the American Association championship series last year, and one has to wonder if that was more a product of Covid-19 and the limited number of options for players. Manager Mike Meyer has proven himself to be one of the best managers and player procurement guys in the league. However, he has a tough task ahead in a very difficult division. Sioux Falls is likely to be on the outside of the playoff picture this year.
11. Can Chicago Compete without Victor Roache?
Roache was a homerun machine for Chicago the last three seasons and he could literally dominate series. Over a four-game series he could blast four homers and drive in 12 or 13 runs, getting his team on a roll, so his loss will be huge Chicago.
However, this is a different kind of Dogs team. With Brennan Metzger and Michael Crouse at the top of the order, they are going to be a very dynamic offense that can produce runs in a lot of different ways. Plus, they still have K.C. Hobson and will have Grant Kay this season. Chicago should have no issues in scoring runs.
10. What Else Can Josh Schaub and Josh Buchholz Do?
Even before the 2021 American Association season gets underway, this may be the most exciting season the league has ever seen. That seems like a crazy statement to make, but the job that Commissioner Josh Schaub and Deputy Commissioner Josh Buchholz have done in getting partnerships and new clubs into the league is truly remarkable.
A lot of league officials would have been pulling their hair out after losing a top franchise like St. Paul and a big market like Texas, but the two calmly brought in Kane County and were able to lure Houston away from the Pecos League for a season to ensure there were 12 teams competing this year. Plus, Lake Country is already locked in for the 2022 season, and it would not be surprising if there are at least two others are on the horizon for that year. Maybe even Jackson.
Along the way they have added key partnerships with Rapsodo, the Australian Baseball League, Rebus, and even Major League Baseball. This does not even include a brand-new studio show recapping games each night and the rebranding of the league. The two have done an excellent job in building up the reputation and success of the league, making this the premier independent baseball league by far, and they didn’t have to add dumb rule changes to make that happen.
9. How Good Will Winnipeg Be without Lambson, Capellan?
Chicago is not the only team losing a mainstay. The Goldeyes will be without closer Victor Capellan and ace starter Mitch Lambson for the first time in nearly five years. Lambson was a lock for at least 11 victories a season and Capellan seemed nearly automatic when he came in close out games. Clearly, they will be missed.
However, the Goldeyes have a lot of depth, especially in the bullpen. José José will likely close for this team, but they have Cory Thompson who could also do the job. Plus, the addition of Ken Frosch makes this quite possibly the deepest bullpen in the North Division. They may not be able to replace Lambson, but Winnipeg should still have a strong rotation.
8. Can George Tsamis Turn Kane County into American Association Champions?
You bet he can. Tsamis is one of the best managers in all of independent baseball, and there is maybe just three or four other managers that are nearly as good as George. So, there is no doubt that he will turn this team into a championship club – just not this year.
Kane County has some glaring holes, and this rotation does not look very good, at least not right now. Maybe the former Saints skipper pulls off some great midseason moves as we have been accustomed to seeing but, right now, this is the middle of the pack team.
7. Will This Be a Great 25th Anniversary Season in Fargo-Moorhead?
Last year was supposed to be the 25th anniversary celebration for the RedHawks, and the team was able to take to the field. However, the club decided to not celebrate the milestone as limitations in the number of fans able to come to games pushed the club to hold back the celebration a year.
This year, Fargo-Moorhead has some great promotions that should be a lot of fun for fans as they get to walk down memory lane once again with one of the most important clubs in all of independent baseball. What will that mean on the field? I’ll come back to that later.
6. Is Kansas City the Team to Beat?
Most definitely. With nine former Major Leaguers and six other players who reached AAA, the Monarchs are, on paper, maybe the best club ever assembled in American Association history. That is saying a lot after what we saw last year.
This may have been the best job that manager Joe Calfapietra has ever done in building the club. He even brought in outfielder Colin Willis, who should have that breakout season we have all been believing he could have if he was playing on a club other than Gary. Kansas City looks like they are unbeatable, but are they? I’ll come back to that as well.
5. Can Nehrir, Simpson Rebound?
Chased Simpson and Zach Nehrir were acquired by Milwaukee during the dispersal draft last season, and it looked like they would help to make the Milkmen the most formidable offense in the American Association. Simpson got off to a great start, hitting .313 in five games, but never took to the field again. Nehrir finished with a .196 batting average in 59 games, by far his worst season offensively. He did pick it up in the playoffs and became the championship series MVP, but it was clearly an off season for the star outfielder.
The question now is if both can turn things around? It was reported that Simpson was battling some type of ear issue and opted to sit out to get well. He is a professional hitter that you can count on for a .280+, 60 RBI season, and the Railroaders will likely see that this year as well. Nehrir may not hit .300 in Cleburne this season, as his best days offensively may be over. However, he will not hit near .200 again and I expect him to score somewhere around 60 runs this year. Plus, there is no better defensive outfielder in the league.
4. Will the Explorers Be a Playoff Team?
In six seasons as the manager of Sioux City, Steve Montgomery has done a spectacular job with this team. The Explorers went 47-53 in his managerial debut, but have been above .500 in four of the last five seasons, making the playoffs in each of those winning years. He has even led this team to two 70-win seasons, the only manager in American Association history to do so, and the Explorers hold the league record for victories in the season with 75, set in 2015.
There is no doubt that Montgomery and his coaching staff produce winning clubs. However, this may be the first year that Sioux City has a winning season and does not advance to the playoffs. That South Division is extremely tough, and so Explorers fans should not be surprised if they are sitting at home come playoff time.
3. Will Milwaukee Repeat as American Association Champions?
No. As much as Milwaukee fans may hate to hear that, this team is not going to repeat. No doubt this is going to be a quality club. They have arguably the best outfield in the league in Brett Vertigan, Mikey Reynolds, and reigning MVP Adam Brett Walker. Plus, one has to expect that Mason Davis and David Washington will rebound after disappointing 2020 seasons. Offensively, this club should be fine.
However, they do not have four former Major Leaguers leading their rotation like they did in 2020, and no one is going to repeat the season that closer Peyton Gray had last year. This team is going to be solid, but they will likely not make the playoffs.
2. How Will the Teams Finish This Season?
Looking at the overall talent of each club, here is how I expect the divisions to pan out.
North Division:
- Fargo-Moorhead RedHawks
- Chicago Dogs
- Milwaukee Milkmen
- Kane County Cougars
- Winnipeg Goldeyes
- Gary Southshore RailCats
South Division:
- Kansas City Monarchs
- Cleburne Railroaders
- Sioux City Explorers
- Sioux Falls Canaries
- Lincoln Saltdogs
- Houston Apollos
1. Who Will Be American Association Champions?
Look for this to be the year that the Fargo-Moorhead RedHawks celebrate their 25th anniversary in style, winning the American Association championship. This will give the club their sixth championship all time, and their first since 2010.
I look for the RedHawks to defeat Chicago in the North Division playoffs in four games. Kansas City will take out Cleburne in four games as well to advance to the championship series where Fargo-Moorhead will win it all in four games. I believe that will then make Chris Coste the first person in independent baseball history to win a championship as a player and manager with the same team. Another remarkable feat in his impressive career.
By Robert Pannier